Sam Gardiner 18 August 2008

We got major insight from the New York Times last week.  Sources are saying the U.S. Secretary of State gave the Georgian President “advice” not to push the Russians into a fight.  She told him Georgia could not win.  An Assistant Secretary of State who was communicating with Saakashvili in the period immediately before the fighting “warned” the Georgians not to allow the situation to escalate.

This is very strange.  A corrupt leader in the Caucasus has dictated U.S. foreign policy.  Now that we are going to punish Russia, Saakashvilli will have affected U.S. policy toward the Russians for many years to come.

“Advice” and “warning” were inadequate.  It was also inadequate to leave the communications to an Assistant Secretary of State.

Saakashvilli should have been told he would suffer very serious consequences if he pushed the Russians.  The United States would cut aid and military assistance, and not support Georgia for NATO membership.

The Administration seems to miss the point that friends can do as much damage as adversaries.  When Secretary Rice says we cannot dictate whether or not Israel conducts a strike on Iran, we see the same kind of weakness.

Sam Gardiner
Colonel, USAF (retired)