The major position statement by President Bush and Secretary Rice has been that Russia should respect the territorial integrity of Georgia.  That sounds benign, but it is the same kind of wording used the the Georgian leader.  It translates into meaning that Russia should permit Georgia to occupy South Ossetia.

The fighting is not just about South Ossetia.  This is a major strategic struggle for influence on in the area between Russia and the United States.  The United States has been working to bring Georgia into NATO and strengthen the Georgian military by encouraging Israeli military sales.  Russia has stated its red line was Georgia's becoming a member of NATO.

The outcome of this situation will affect how the international community responds to Iran.  The Iranians understand the significant and have warned of the possibility of destabilizing the region.

Georgia has declared a state of war and ordered a general mobilization, although the general mobilization is somewhat pathetic.  The BBC showed pictures this morning of young and middle aged men lining up to to go war with their blue backpacks.

Russia has extended bombing inside Georgia, to include the port of Poti.  It feels like to bombing campaign NATO unleashed on Serbia.

Russia is sending reinforcements into the region.  Mentioned this morning is the 76th Airborne Division, which is actually about the size of a brigade.  This is very significant because the unit comes from the Moscow region.  It is part of the Russian strategic reserve.  Its deployment show how serious the Russian are about the situation.

Azerbaijan papers are saying Azeri volunteers find themselves unable to stand by and watch Georgia be attacked.

There are some reports of fighting going on with groups in Abkhazia, the other breakaway republic.

Georgia has asked the United States to help deploying its 2,000 troops from Iraq back to Georgia.  In addition, the Secretary of the Georgian National Security Council said Georgia may be asking for "international military assistance."  This would be a very significant step.

Georgian troops will probably be pushed out of South Ossetia by the end of the day.  That will bring the parties to a decision point.  Will it be a return to the status quo ante with Russian troops enforcing the situation?  This would be a major dilemma for the United States    

Or, will either Georgia or Russia decide to take the situation farther?  

Russia could decide to annex South O ssetia.  Russian citizenship has already been granted to 90% of the citizens there.  South Ossetia has appealed for membership in the Russian Federation.  North Ossetia, inside Russia, has voted to welcome a union with South Ossetia.  This would be a major dilemma for the United States.

The Georgian decision will be whether or not to launch another attack into South Osstetia.  This would probably only happen if they received or assumed they would receive U.S. or Israeli military assistance.  The decision to support Georgia is a major dilemma for the United States and could have very serious consequences.

U.S. television network coverage of this very serious situation continues to be pathetic.  CNN was breathless last night over the Edward's sex story with only passing mention of the Caucus fighting.  Thank heavens the cables now carry the BBC.

This was a second bad day.

 

Originally written on 9 august 2008.